A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
